BREAKING: The Fading Dream of NATO Membership for Georgia

Of all the countries that participated in the Afghanistan war, few contributed as much or as selflessly as Georgia. As a country, their support was unwavering, as were the sacrifices and actions of their troops, trainers, and assistants. NATO took notice of this, and Georgia, among all the other nations in the Greater Caucasus region, was the first pick for future NATO membership. Yet the years since then have not been kind to Georgia or her image in alliance and its stated goals.

One might argue there were many reasons for this, but those arguments are difficult, if not impossible, to defend. Since 2019, Georgia has not hosted a visit for the NATO Secretary General or his Deputy. They have not hosted a visit with the North Atlantic Council or held an annual NATO-Georgia Public Diplomacy Forum. Meanwhile, defense spending has plummeted from a high of almost 10% to just under 1.7% as of 2021.

More concerning, Georgia has refused to officially commit to meaningfully aiding Ukraine against the war of Russian aggression. Instead, they have chosen a soft path between the interests of NATO and regional security, while adopting a favorable position towards Russia, including allowing the resumption of direct flights between Georgia and Russia. In doing this, they enable the Russian enemy of regional peace and stability to evade sanctions more easily.

But perhaps most damning is the remarks of Georgian Prime Minister Garibashvili. In May of 2023, while speaking at the GLOBSEC forum in Bratislava, he blamed NATO for the war in Ukraine. While some have claimed it was a political blunder, the facts outlined in this article might indicate otherwise. One year earlier, in 2022, while speaking at the Qatar Economic Forum, Garabishvili volunteered to say there was no place in NATO for Georgia until their territorial disputes were settled.

However, this contradicts decades of official Georgian policy and language. Georgian analysts and politicians jointly condemned the words of Garabishvili, but his political maneuvers were not limited to those occasions. At the Independence Day celebrations of 2022, neither the Prime Minister's nor the President and Commander-in-Chief's speeches mentioned NATO. They also did not talk about the NATO aspirations of Georgia. And again, at the 2023 Independence Day speeches, integration with NATO was not brought up.

To say these were intentional oversights would be challenging to prove. But at the same time, one cannot claim there was no intent behind the actions and words or lack thereof, particularly in light of the recent and marked departure of President Zurabishvili's previous support of Garabishvili. She has criticized the resumption of direct flights from Georgia to Russia. Further, she pointed out the Georgian government's apparent lack of knowledge in allowing Sergei Lavrov's sanctioned daughter to enter Georgia.

Still, it remains to be seen whether the dreams and aspirations of Georgia's NATO membership will be realized or crushed under the boot of authoritarianism. Not everything is what it seems in Georgian politics, and it’s easy to dismiss the actions of politicians and political rivals along party lines. There is more to this story than casual observation would indicate.