BREAKING: Russian Occupiers Resume Borderization

On June 14, 2023, the State Security Service of Georgia (SSSG) confirmed that Russian occupiers had resumed the borderization of Georgian territory. Specifically, they have started illegally installing barbed wire and metal poles near Khurvaleti village in the municipality of Gori. SSSG indicated full responsibility for these illegal actions rests with the Russian occupiers.

As a result, the hotline mechanism for the European Union's Monitoring Mission (EUMM) was activated, notifying them. Additional notifications were made to the Co-Chairs of the Geneva International Discussions (GID). When the Ergneti Incident Prevention and Response Mechanism (IPRM) meets next, SSGS will also raise the issue.

While the issue of borderization has been an ongoing concern, the resumption of Russian aggression along the border of Georgia raises several questions for those of us in the field of National and Regional Security. Considering Russia's military failures in Ukraine and the increasing likelihood of Russia's expulsion from all Ukrainian territories, one has to ask what Russia's next steps will be. The reality of Moscow's imperialist ambitions and abuses of border nations is no secret to the world. Still, it is one Georgia has suffered under longer than any other nation.

As there are no direct official assaults into Russia from Ukraine, one can't argue that Russia is fighting a war on any front. They are invaders. Nothing more. While there have been no indications of a build-up of Russian troops in the occupied regions of Georgia, this does not mean there won't be. In the event of a large-scale or total planned or forced withdrawal of Russian troops from the territory of Ukraine, Moscow, and Putin will be looking to save face and retain political power.

One way to achieve their political ends could be the so-called 'liberation' of the hundreds of thousands of Russian citizens in Georgia. Western powers remain focused on the security and rehabilitation of Ukraine, but many of their citizens have expressed war weariness. Russia could leverage this weariness to its advantage and send troops into Georgia without meaningful action from the West.

While many believe this to be unlikely, the fact remains that it is a possibility. Georgia is no stranger to the atrocities and war crimes of Russia. 2008 is still fresh on the minds of many Georgians, and they have not forgotten the general lack of action by the Western powers. Because of this, Georgia should be more actively seeking guarantees from the West rather than attempting to integrate itself with Russia more closely.

This issue remains unresolved and is something security analysts and regional actors should remain aware of.

Source: SSSG