BREAKING: Iran – A Regional Crisis in the Making?

Too often, an ideological majority can fall victim to their perceived numerical dominance. Yet there are other times when an independent actor can rise to prominence, especially when the dominant power grows complacent or is distracted by the realization of internal or external goals. In this case, Iran has historically been the dominant power in the relational power dynamic between Azerbaijan and Iran. However, the landscape is changing, and not to the liking of Tehran.

Since the start of 2023, Azerbaijan has become the only Shiite Muslim majority country to open an embassy in Israel. As a counterpoint, Iran, having the largest Shiite majority population in the world, has repeatedly called for the destruction of Israel. As such, their animosity towards Israel has also fallen on Baku and the ruling party of Azerbaijan's elite.

But this is not a simple issue of geopolitical irritation. Azerbaijan has been a thorn in the side of Iran since 2020. At that time, Azerbaijan used Israeli Harop drones to secure a dominant victory over Armenia in the Second Nagorno-Karabakh War. Iran was very unhappy with the partnership between Baku and Jerusalem. However, their complaints fell on deaf ears or were diffused with diplomatic promises of maybe and might be. Yet, in the end, Azerbaijan and Israel agreed to a partnership, and the two countries aligned themselves militarily, if not politically.

Iran is now struggling to assert dominance in a region that has historically been under the sway of Persian influence and military power. Yet, they can no longer rely on their religious majority or military force to sway like-minded powers to side with them. Azerbaijan no longer bows to Iran as it once did.

Faced with the diminishing power of Iran in the region, what are the next steps for this once-great power and its neighbors? Will the extension of US soft power into the area impact their decision-making? What about the steady decline of Russian power or the concerning economic developments plaguing the Chinese Belt and Road Initiative?

The area is ripe for conflict unless the nations of the greater Caucasus region can find common ground and work towards their shared goals.