UPDATE: Azerbaijan Warns Against Traveling to Iran

In a marked departure from the ongoing tensions between Azerbaijan and Iran, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs in Azerbaijan has officially warned its citizens against travel to Iran. CASE previously provided a brief on what was best described as a brewing conflict. However, recent days have seen a marked shift in the tone and nature of the disputes between Iran and Azerbaijan.

Azerbaijan noted two significant points of escalation. It was on June 1, 2023, when it was learned that Farid Safarli, a citizen of Azerbaijan, had been detained in Iran on espionage charges. But Mr. Safarli had been a student studying in Germany and was reported missing more than three months earlier. It was only in the last month that Iran had announced a case against him. As such, the specific charges provided by Iran raised more questions than they answered.

Then, on June 3, 2023, the issue of a January 2023 terrorist attack on the Embassy of Azerbaijan in Iran was raised. This attack wounded two guards and killed the head of security at the Embassy. Shortly after that, Azerbaijan closed the Embassy. Since this closure, no meaningful or decisive steps have been taken by Iran. Words and assurances were given, but as history has demonstrated repeatedly, Iran maintains close ties to terrorist organizations. It rarely acknowledges, punishes, or meaningfully addresses attacks made by such organizations.

Jeyhun Bayramov, the Foreign Minister of Azerbaijan, said Iran had repeatedly asked them to open their Embassy again. But he has refused, saying Azerbaijan would need absolute certainty that the attackers were brought to justice and severely punished. Otherwise, there was no possibility of him restoring operations in Iran.

Iran's official response was broadcast on Twitter, saying that 'what should scare the people of #Azerbaijan is the #Zionist_regime, not civilized and Islamic Iran' - a direct reference to Azerbaijan's close relationship with Israel. Yet, it isn't only Israel that disturbs Iran. There are other more pressing concerns.

Among them are the efforts of Azerbaijan to establish a corridor through Armenia to guarantee safe passage to the Azeri enclave of Nakhchivan. Doing so could remove access to the Armenian border with Iran. But another concern for Iran is its rapidly dwindling influence in the world at large. There was a time in recent memory when Iran had the military and religious power to order other nations in the region to act according to their wishes. And none of those nations had the ability to stand against Iran.

But this time is rapidly passing, and soon, Iran will likely no longer possess the power to project meaningful force into any other nation. Particularly a country with the military strength and wealth of Azerbaijan. While many take joy in seeing Iran's continually diminishing influence and power, the security concerns this presents should not be overlooked.

The Greater Caucasus Region has never been in a more precarious position. And central among the countries represented in this area, none stand to lose more than Georgia if politics and power struggles shift in directions unfavorable to the country.

Of most importance is the current Russian war of aggression against Ukraine. If Russia collapses like the Soviet Union did, Ukraine will supplant the geopolitical significance of Georgia. Further, the necessity of rebuilding Ukraine, coupled with what will likely amount to trillions of dollars in contracts and reconstruction efforts, will leave Georgia at the wrong end of donor money and rehabilitation interests.

Combine this with the brewing conflict between Azerbaijan and Iran, which would likely involve Turkey, and the world powers will shift their attention away from Georgia and to Azerbaijan. But this is not the end of Georgia's growing list of regional security concerns.

Once the hundreds of thousands of Russians who have taken refuge in Georgia have a home to return to or anywhere which isn't a conflict zone, they will leave Georgia. The economy, which has been largely propped up by Russian citizens paying double and triple rent prices while consuming goods and entertainment, will dry up almost overnight. Without the guarantee of foreign tourist-based income or the security of Western interests in countering Russia, there will be little left in Georgia to entice the West.

Any scenarios described above pose security risks to the region, but they all uniquely impact Georgia. Particularly in light of the information contained in other Security Briefs we at CASE have posted. The conflict brewing between Iran and Azerbaijan could contribute to significantly reshaping the region and should be watched closely.

Source: MFA