BREAKING: Armenia is No Ally of Russia

None of the independent countries in the Greater Caucasus Region are more arguably isolated than Armenia. The country has no access to seaports or major shipping and tourism industries. Outside their standard exports, such as copper, gold, liquor, and tobacco, a majority of which are imported by Russia, they are an energy-dependent nation operating at a national deficit of approximately 8.5% of GDP. This makes the government particularly susceptible to outside influence, and as the country borders the eastern part of Georgia, it presents a security risk to the region.

Recently, Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan gave a detailed interview to CNN, publicly stating several unspoken truths. A relative newcomer to the regional stage, he came to power following the Velvet Revolution of 2018, and his comments give some interesting insights into the power structure of Armenia and the geopolitical dynamics with which they are currently contending.

In particular, he called out the illegal actions of Azerbaijan in blocking the Lachin corridor. This is supposed to be a 5km (3.1 miles) corridor protecting the transport of goods and personnel between Armenia and the region of Nagorno-Karabakh. His claims, which this brief has not verified, are that essential supplies cannot be delivered. Moreover, gas and electricity are regularly interrupted to the point that some 30,000 children could not attend school during winter.

While these and other humanitarian events are documented, international courts and bodies are slow to act. As a result, the perceived impotence of these bodies and their decisions is not lost on the people of Armenia. However, Pashinyan has elected to make his personal opinions known publicly. Presumably, his reasons for this are to avoid manipulation by media and world powers. However, as with all things political, one must dig a bit deeper to find the true purpose of his interview.

To start, he expressed the disappointment of Armenia and her people with the failings of the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO). There was an expectation that the security mechanisms were reliable, but they proved not to be. As a result, Armenia will reevaluate their participation in the CSTO. More importantly, they will question the legitimacy of it. Yet, in the same breath, when a journalist asked about Pashinyan's angering of Putin and Lavrov, he deflected the question, citing diplomatic norms and lunch specifics.

But his overall theme remained on Armenia's difficulties as a regional power, compounded by the relative inaction or direct support of international forces towards resolving issues plaguing the country. In particular, questions about the allegiance of Armenia towards Russia in the larger landscape of the Russian war of aggression on Ukraine were asked. Yet, Pashinyan made it clear Armenia was no ally of Russia. Nor are they allies of Ukraine or the West. The county has problems and needs more meaningful aid to resolve its difficulties. Therefore, why would they align with any power when none are helping them?

The worries and concerns of Armenia are enough that they cannot meaningfully involve themselves in the conflicts of others. The complexities of Armenia as a nation lie not in the geopolitics issue but in the simple facts of geography. But throughout his tenure as Prime Minister, he has maintained one hope that his optimism will eventually be rewarded. Yet, he quotes an old adage that every human is an optimist, but an optimist is only an ill-informed pessimist.

Regarding Georgian security and that of the Greater Caucasus Region, the current limbo status in Armenia raises concerns. The country shares borders with Azerbaijan, Georgia, Iran, and Turkey, which can be negatively impacted by any collapse or restructuring of Armenian political and regional power. While geographical insulation from Russia is of short-term benefit to the nation, the ongoing Russian occupation of Georgia and war or aggression against Ukraine raises concerns not just for Armenia, but her neighbors too. The bitter taste of Russian imperialism still salts the region.

It remains to be seen where Pashinyan and his country will commit themselves, or even if they will have the opportunity to do so before their own economic concerns overwhelm the ruling party.